(My Middle East)

77 days with a journalist, Lebanon, and a list of non sequiturs

Victory for March 14? Be just as concerned

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There is a good Q&A with Michael Young from The Daily Star yesterday, who points out that even though everyone is talking about the regional impact of a decisive March 8 victory, he says a decisive victory for March 14 could be equally as destabilizing

The Future Party

The Future Party

“If there is a substantial victory by the March 14 forces, in alliance with so-called independent candidates, you’ll also have a period of instability. The “independents” are primarily Christians who have said they are neither with March 14 nor with the opposition.

A large victory by either side would be destabilizing. The least destabilizing option would be essentially a stalemate, which would mean a modest victory by a coalition of March 14 with the independents, in which any future government would be probably headed by Saad Hariri or by one of his political allies. But at the same time, given that this victory would have been modest, you would have to give the opposition some kind of role in the government–it would be a national unity government of some sort.”

It makes sense because Hezbollah would be put in a weaker position, having less political power and having to rely on their military power to protect their interests. A March 14 strong victory would also put the government in a position to try and force Hezbollah to give up their arms (if they were so inclined), which would invariably lead to conflict.

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Written by stephenddockery

May 30, 2009 at 11:35 am

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